It is desirable for all related insiders and outsiders to discern all potential risk in advance . this paper , with the adoption of special treatment resulted from abnormal financial position as the indicator of financial distress , the univariate variable analysis and multiple variable analysis as the research approach and some financial ratios as variable , tries to find an optimal financial distress prediction model of chinese manufacturing listed companies based on public accounting data . our finding demonstrate that five general financial ratios and three ratios concerning the cash flow have better predicting ability , the erroneous classification ratio are low . these five general financial ratios are earning per share , return on net assets , return on gross assets , growth rate of net profits , growth rate of net assets ; the three ratios concerning the cash flow are net cash flows from operating activities per share , net re - earnable cash flows / current liability , net cash flows from operating activities / net profit 研究結(jié)果表明,在單變量分析中,每股收益、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、總資產(chǎn)報酬率、凈利潤增長率、凈資產(chǎn)增長率這5個財務(wù)比率的錯分率較低、預(yù)測能力較強;經(jīng)營活動凈現(xiàn)金流量與凈利潤之比、每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量、可重復(fù)賺取的現(xiàn)金凈流量與流動負(fù)債之比這三個現(xiàn)金流量財務(wù)比率對于預(yù)測上市公司財務(wù)困境具有有效性;多變量分析中,應(yīng)用費雪判別分析和典則判別分析得到兩個判別模型,在典則判別分析中,應(yīng)用兩種方法確定所建模型的最佳分界點,檢測證明應(yīng)用所得兩個判別模型進行財務(wù)困境預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確率很高。